In a recent Snap Judgments on CNNSI.Com, Don Banks asked "and when will Smith's decision to go with Philip Rivers over Brees at quarterback in 2006 rightly go down as one of the worst personnel calls in league history?"
The answer?
Never.
Drew Brees is on of the top four QBs in the league, NOW, there's no doubting that (Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady, Drew Brees and Peyton Manning pre-neck surgery, have to wait and see what happens when he returns). Rounding out the Top 5 would be Ben Roethlisberger or Philip Rivers. That same Rivers that Banks is saying was such a downgrade from Brees.
We have to remember some things about the decision to jettison Brees:
1- He was coming off major shoulder surgery and no one was sure if he would be the same (similar to what is being questioned about Manning now).
2- He wasn't the QB he is now back then.
Look at his numbers with the Chargers:
2002: 76.9 rating, 17 TD, 16 INT (his first full year), 8-8 record (4th in division)
2003: 67.5 rating, 11 TD, 15 INT, 4-12 record (4th in division)
2004: 104.8 rating, 27 TD, 7 INT, 12-4 record (1st in division)
2005: 89.2 rating, 24 TD, 15 INT, 9-7 record (3rd in division)
Decent. A year that showed what he was capable of, but not Top 3 QB numbers or results. During his time with the Chargers he led them to one playoff game and lost in the Wild Card round to the Jets. Where was the evidence to A.J. Smith that Drew Brees would someday break Dan Marino's passing record? Where wsa the evidence that this was a guy that would lead the Chargers to the Super Bowl?
GMs aren't fortune tellers. They can't see what the future will bring. All Smith can do is go off of the evidence before him. With the shoulder surgery, Brees not having been the greatest during his Chargers time, the availability of Rivers in the draft. What was Smith to do?
History will show that Brees is better then Rivers, at least right now, who knows what the future holds for Rivers. But really, there is no gurantee that if Brees had stayed with the Chargers the results would still have been the same. There might not have been a Super Bowl victory. There might not have been the passing record. None of that is guranteed
This deal wasn't the greatest trade in the history of the NFL. But it wasn't anywhere near being "one of the worst personnel calls in league history". Not even close.
For comparasion let's look at Rivers numbers:
2006: 92.0 rating, 22 TD, 9 INT, 14-2 (1st in division, lost to Patriots in Divisional round)
2007: 82.5 rating, 21 TD, 15 INT, 11-5 (1st in division, lost to Patriots in Conference Championship)
2008: 105.6 rating, 34 TD, 11 INT, 8-8 (1st in division, lost to Steelers in Divisional round)
2009: 104.4 rating, 28 TD, 9 INT, 13-3 (1st in division, lost to the Jets in Divisional round)
2010: 101.8 rating, 30 TD, 13 INT, 9-7 (2nd in division)
2011: 88.7 rating, 27 TD, 20 INT, 8-8 (2nd in division)
So where has Rivers been so awful? Four division titles is bad? Sure any GM would trade a Super Bowl victory for 4 division titles. But like I said before, there's no gurantee that Brees would have won a Super Bowl with the Chargers.
Let's look at Brees numbers when he joined the Saints:
2006: 96.3 rating, 26 TD, 11 INT, 10-6 (1st in division, lost to Bears in Conference Championship)
2007: 89.4 rating, 28 TD 18 INT, 7-9 (3rd in division)
2008: 96.3 rating, 34 TD, 17 INT, 8-8 (4th in division)
2009: 109.6 rating, 34 TD, 11 INT, 13-3 (1st in division, won the Super Bowl)
2010: 90.9 rating, 33 TD, 22 INT, 11-5 (2nd in division, lost to Seahawks in Wild Card round)
2011: 110.6 rating, 46 TD, 14 INT, 13-3 (1st in division, playing 49ers in Divisional Round this weekend)
Brees has become one of the top 3/4 (if Manning is playing) QBs in the league. But really how far off from Rivers is he? Like I said, there's no gurantee the same thing would have happened if he had stayed with the Chargers.
Using Banks logic that trading Brees away was so bad, it stands to reason that if he had gone to Miami that the same thing would have happened. He would have won a Super Bowl, he would have passed Marino's record.
Does anyone really believe that?
Now if Brees had done what he had done in New Orleans and Rivers had pulled a Vince Young in San Diego, then it would have been a bad move. But how much of the Chargers not advancing is to blame on Rivers?
Brees is damn good. Rivers is good. Calling the Brees trade one of the worst personal moves in League history is just dumb.
And I usually like what Banks said, but this one was just so crazy I had to comment.
Now the trade of Darren Sproles? That was dumb.
(the difference is that the evidence was there in San Diego that Sproles was capable of doing what he did this year with the Saints, trading him away was just stupid)
Tuesday, January 10, 2012
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